Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Estimated games
22.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
7-3 (W-L)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1558 · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1526
| Tommy Paul | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10 | 13.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.2
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Holger Rune ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Sebastian Baez ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Alejandro Tabilo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Marton Fucsovics US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model gives 66% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.