Prediction: Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Tomas Martin Etcheverry · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
5-5 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1–2
Alex De Minaur
(3 last)
- 15 Apr0-2 8-12L
- 28 Dec0-2 5-12L
- 01 Jun3-0 19-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1472 · Alex De Minaur 1590
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex De Minaur (rating 1472 vs 1590).
- Alex De Minaur is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1–2 Alex De Minaur (3).
Statistics
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-14 | 12-11.2 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 37.4% | 42.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.4
Over 21.5: 66% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 34% · 1.83
H2H · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1 – 2 Alex De Minaur (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1–2 Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/25 ATP Barcelona | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/12/24 United Cup | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06/23 French Open | 3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Andrey Rublev ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 26/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 10/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 02/09 | Jacob Fearnley US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-15 | W |
| 30/08 | Vit Kopriva US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 30/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/10 | Learner Tien ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/10 | Tomas Machac ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 73% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.