Prediction: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Ignacio Buse · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Ignacio Buse
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ignacio Buse
6-4 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ignacio Buse 1488 · Daniil Medvedev 1649
| Ignacio Buse | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 72% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1488 vs 1649).
- Daniil Medvedev dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 41% break avg.
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Ignacio Buse | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-13.3 | 12.7-9.5 |
| Aces | 6 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 76% |
| Break % | 34.9% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4
Over 19.5: 76% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 24% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ignacio Buse
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Zizou Bergs ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 10/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Davis Cup |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 18/09 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 03/09 | Benjamin Bonzi US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Marcos Giron US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-20 | W |
| 29/08 | Arthur Fery ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/08 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 80% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.