Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
9-1 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
1–3
Lorenzo Musetti
(4 last)
- 25 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 14 May0-2 10-13L
- 25 Oct1-2 16-15L
- 01 Aug0-2 10-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1597 · Lorenzo Musetti 1580
| Alexander Zverev | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 11.3 aces and 42.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 1–3 Lorenzo Musetti (4).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-12.5 | 14.4-12.8 |
| Aces | 11.3 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 36.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.1
Over 22.5: 71% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 29% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Zverev 1 – 3 Lorenzo Musetti (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 1–3 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/25 ATP Vienna | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/05/25 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/10/24 ATP Vienna | 1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 01/08/24 Olympics 2024 - Men | 0-2 | 10-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 30/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Martin Landaluce ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 17/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 15/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 11/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Yibing Wu ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 61% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.