Prediction: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea
Team pages: Jan-Lennard Struff · Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan-Lennard Struff
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
25.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan-Lennard Struff
9-1 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan-Lennard Struff 1574 · Arthur Gea 1618
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1574 vs 1618).
- Jan-Lennard Struff dominates on serve: 12.5 aces and 43.7% break avg.
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 43.9% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Jan-Lennard Struff | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-12.2 | 16.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 12.5 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 82% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.9
Over 23.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 37% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan-Lennard Struff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 28/10 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 23/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/10 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Arthur Gea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/10 | Ben Shelton ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/10 | Jaime Faria ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 30/09 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/09 | Tomas Machac ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Rigele Te ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 29-29 | L |
| 05/09 | Michael Zheng US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 54% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.