Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
3-7 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1501 · Sebastian Baez 1444
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1501 vs 1444).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 0.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.2 | 10.3-13.8 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 27.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2
Over 21.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 36% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Alejandro Tabilo Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrey Rublev US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-17 | W |
| 30/08 | Marton Fucsovics US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marin Cilic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Learner Tien ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Tomas Machac ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/10 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Paris · Hard |
1-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 20/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 66% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.