Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Tomas Machac
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Tomas Machac
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
3-7 (W-L)
Tomas Machac
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Baez
0–2
Tomas Machac
(2 last)
- 14 Apr1-2 11-14L
- 08 Apr1-2 11-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1447 · Tomas Machac 1556
| Sebastian Baez | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tomas Machac (rating 1447 vs 1556).
- Tomas Machac is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Baez 0–2 Tomas Machac (2).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Tomas Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-14.2 | 12.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.2% | 72% |
| Break % | 31% | 52.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.9
Over 21.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Sebastian Baez 0 – 2 Tomas Machac (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Baez 0–2 Tomas Machac
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 ATP Barcelona | 1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/04/25 ATP Monte Carlo | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Paris · Hard |
1-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 20/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
Tomas Machac
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Martin Landaluce ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 24/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 21/10 | Zangar Nurlanuly ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/10 | Liam Draxl Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 15/10 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac?
Our model gives 70% to Tomas Machac, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.