Prediction: Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini
Team pages: Brandon Nakashima · Matteo Berrettini
Prediction summary
Winner
Brandon Nakashima
Matteo Berrettini
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Brandon Nakashima
7-3 (W-L)
Matteo Berrettini
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Brandon Nakashima
1–1
Matteo Berrettini
(2 last)
- 09 Oct2-0 14-11W
- 17 Jan1-3 17-23L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brandon Nakashima 1518 · Matteo Berrettini 1476
| Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brandon Nakashima (rating 1518 vs 1476).
Statistics
| Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-13.2 | 13.4-14.1 |
| Aces | 10.8 | 11.9 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 77.6% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.1
Over 24.5: 57% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 43% · 1.83
H2H · Brandon Nakashima 1 – 1 Matteo Berrettini (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brandon Nakashima 1–1 Matteo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/26 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/01/22 Australian Open | 1-3 | 17-23 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brandon Nakashima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 23/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Jakub Mensik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 02/09 | Alex Michelsen US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 31/08 | Sebastian Baez US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
Matteo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 07/10 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 03/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 03/09 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 19-22 | L |
| 31/08 | Stan Wawrinka US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 20-12 | W |
| 16/08 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini?
Our model gives 55% to Brandon Nakashima, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.