Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Alejandro Tabilo · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
4-6 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Tabilo
1–3
Rafael Jodar
(4 last)
- 27 Oct0-2 6-12L
- 18 Aug0-2 3-12L
- 02 Aug1-2 15-18L
- 06 Mar2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1460 · Rafael Jodar 1581
| Alejandro Tabilo | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1460 vs 1581).
- Rafael Jodar is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo 1–3 Rafael Jodar (4).
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.7 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-14.3 | 14.1-11.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 5 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 69.7% |
| Break % | 30.2% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.6
Over 20.5: 74% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 26% · 1.90
H2H · Alejandro Tabilo 1 – 3 Rafael Jodar (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Tabilo 1–3 Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/26 ATP Basel | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/08/26 ATP Cincinnati | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/08/26 ATP Washington | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 06/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 03/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Tommy Paul ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 18/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 27/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 17/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 75% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.