Prediction: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi
Team pages: Cameron Norrie · Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Cameron Norrie
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Cameron Norrie
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Cameron Norrie
0–1
Matteo Arnaldi
(1 last)
- 02 Sept0-3 10-18L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cameron Norrie 1450 · Matteo Arnaldi 1435
| Cameron Norrie | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Cameron Norrie 0–1 Matteo Arnaldi (1).
Statistics
| Cameron Norrie | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.7 | 0.9-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-14.2 | 11.4-13.9 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.9
Over 23.5: 56% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 44% · 1.83
H2H · Cameron Norrie 0 – 1 Matteo Arnaldi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cameron Norrie 0–1 Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/23 US Open | 0-3 | 10-18 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cameron Norrie
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/10 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/08 | Luca Van Assche US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 14-24 | L |
| 16/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Dino Prizmic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/08 | Arthur Fils ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Alex De Minaur ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/10 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Bernard Tomic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 31/08 | James Duckworth US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 15/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/08 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 56% to Cameron Norrie, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.