Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Lorenzo Musetti · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Musetti
2–2
Hubert Hurkacz
(4 last)
- 24 Apr2-0 13-10W
- 07 Jul0-3 14-19L
- 09 Feb2-1 17-13W
- 29 Jun0-3 11-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Musetti 1563 · Hubert Hurkacz 1586
| Lorenzo Musetti | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 15.2 aces and 57.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Musetti | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-12.7 | 14.4-12 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 15.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 80.5% |
| Break % | 43.6% | 57.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +0.5
Over 24.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 47% · 1.83
H2H · Lorenzo Musetti 2 – 2 Hubert Hurkacz (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Musetti 2–2 Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07/23 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 09/02/22 ATP Rotterdam | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/06/21 Wimbledon | 0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/10 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 03/09 | Dane Sweeny US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 01/09 | Arthur Fery US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Holger Rune ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 27/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 13/10 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 11/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | James Duckworth ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 01/10 | Learner Tien ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/09 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 51% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.