Prediction: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Grigor Dimitrov
Team pages: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
6-4 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
1–0
Grigor Dimitrov
(1 last)
- 23 Apr2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1519 · Grigor Dimitrov 1460
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (rating 1519 vs 1460).
- Grigor Dimitrov dominates on serve: 8 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1–0 Grigor Dimitrov (1).
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.3 | 12.8-13.3 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 48% · 2.00
H2H · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1 – 0 Grigor Dimitrov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1–0 Grigor Dimitrov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 ATP Madrid | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 10/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Valentin Royer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/09 | Jaime Faria ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 28/09 | Taro Daniel ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Jie Cui ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Grigor Dimitrov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/09 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Holger Rune Davis Cup |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 18/09 | Elmer Moller Davis Cup |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 01/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 26/08 | Timofey Skatov US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/08 | Lorenzo Giustino US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Sebastian Baez ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 56% to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.