Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Damir Dzumhur
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Damir Dzumhur
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
4-6 (W-L)
Damir Dzumhur
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Baez
3–1
Damir Dzumhur
(4 last)
- 26 Apr1-2 9-13L
- 15 Apr2-0 13-6W
- 01 Mar2-0 12-8W
- 12 May2-1 19-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1437 · Damir Dzumhur 1565
| Sebastian Baez | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Damir Dzumhur (rating 1437 vs 1565).
- Damir Dzumhur is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Baez 3–1 Damir Dzumhur (4).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-13.8 | 11.8-10.5 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 64.8% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 40.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1
Over 23.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 57% · 1.83
H2H · Sebastian Baez 3 – 1 Damir Dzumhur (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Baez 3–1 Damir Dzumhur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 ATP Madrid | 1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/04/25 ATP Barcelona | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/03/25 ATP Santiago | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05/21 Challenger Zagreb | 2-1 | 19-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 20/10 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Marcos Giron ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/09 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 31/08 | Brandon Nakashima US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 3-18 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Grenier ATP Winston-Salem · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Hubert Hurkacz Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 23/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Damir Dzumhur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Dino Prizmic ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 18/10 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/10 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/10 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/10 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Villena · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/10 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Villena · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/09 | Moez Echargui Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur?
Our model gives 60% to Damir Dzumhur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.