Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Pablo Carreno Busta · Mattia Bellucci
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Carreno Busta
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Carreno Busta
3-7 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pablo Carreno Busta
1–1
Mattia Bellucci
(2 last)
- 03 Jan2-1 15-16W
- 12 Oct0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Carreno Busta 1507 · Mattia Bellucci 1588
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mattia Bellucci (rating 1507 vs 1588).
- Mattia Bellucci dominates on serve: 9 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Mattia Bellucci is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-12.9 | 14.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 3 | 9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 39.8% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +0.8
Over 23.5: 56% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 44% · 1.83
H2H · Pablo Carreno Busta 1 – 1 Mattia Bellucci (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pablo Carreno Busta 1–1 Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/26 ATP Brisbane | 2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 12/10/23 Challenger Malaga | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 12/10 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 10/10 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yi Zhou ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Jiri Lehecka US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 16/08 | Andrey Rublev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Tomas Machac ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Terence Atmane ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 21/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 18/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/10 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/10 | Yi Zhou ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 06/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Elias Ymer ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 58% to Mattia Bellucci, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.