Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot
Team pages: Novak Djokovic · Valentin Vacherot
Prediction summary
Winner
Novak Djokovic
Valentin Vacherot
Estimated games
26.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Novak Djokovic
4-6 (W-L)
Valentin Vacherot
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Novak Djokovic
0–1
Valentin Vacherot
(1 last)
- 11 Oct0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Novak Djokovic 1509 · Valentin Vacherot 1604
| Novak Djokovic | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valentin Vacherot (rating 1509 vs 1604).
- Head-to-head: Novak Djokovic 0–1 Valentin Vacherot (1).
Statistics
| Novak Djokovic | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.7 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.4-17 | 12.7-12.3 |
| Aces | 9.6 | 11.5 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 23.9% | 39.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.3
Over 22.5: 78% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 22% · 1.90
H2H · Novak Djokovic 0 – 1 Valentin Vacherot (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Novak Djokovic 0–1 Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 ATP Shanghai | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Novak Djokovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 28/10 | Ugo Humbert ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 02/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/09 | Nuno Borges ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/08 | Mariano Navone US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 22-28 | L |
| 15/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 29-28 | W |
Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 31/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/10 | Holger Rune ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 26/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 12/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Sebastian Baez ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot?
Our model gives 54% to Novak Djokovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.