Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Jiri Lehecka
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Jiri Lehecka
Estimated games
24.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
6-4 (W-L)
Jiri Lehecka
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
1–1
Jiri Lehecka
(2 last)
- 26 Apr0-2 6-12L
- 18 Jan3-1 22-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1519 · Jiri Lehecka 1610
| Alex Michelsen | Jiri Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jiri Lehecka (rating 1519 vs 1610).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 44.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Jiri Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-13.7 | 13.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 10.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 44.9% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.3
Over 22.5: 66% · 1.72
Under 22.5: 34% · 2.00
H2H · Alex Michelsen 1 – 1 Jiri Lehecka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 1–1 Jiri Lehecka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/01/24 Australian Open | 3-1 | 22-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/10 | David Goffin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 08/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 06/09 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
Jiri Lehecka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 31/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/10 | Jerome Kym ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/10 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Basel · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 23/10 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Brussels · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 22/10 | Raphael Collignon ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 06/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka?
Our model gives 58% to Jiri Lehecka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.