Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 24/10, 10:00
Prediction: Matteo Gribaldo vs Adrian Oetzbach
Team pages: Matteo Gribaldo · Adrian Oetzbach
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Gribaldo
Adrian Oetzbach
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Gribaldo
4-6 (W-L)
Adrian Oetzbach
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Gribaldo 1530 · Adrian Oetzbach 1511
| Matteo Gribaldo | Adrian Oetzbach | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Matteo Gribaldo makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Adrian Oetzbach makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Matteo Gribaldo | Adrian Oetzbach | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-10.6 | 11-11.9 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 60.5% | 61.8% |
| Break % | 60.8% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Gribaldo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Lorenzo Angelini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/10 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Eero Vasa M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 20/10 | Marcel Zielinski M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/07 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/03 | Tom Gentzsch M15 Rovinj · ~Clay |
0-1 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/02 | Luca Castagnola M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Mickael Kaouk M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 29/10 | Giovanni Oradini ITF M15 Selva Gardena · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Patric Prinoth ITF M15 Selva Gardena · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
Adrian Oetzbach
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Leonardo Iemmi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Florian Broska Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/10 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Imanol Lopez Morillo Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Riccardo Trione Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/09 | George Lazarov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Gribaldo vs Adrian Oetzbach?
Our model gives 52% to Adrian Oetzbach, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.