Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 22/10, 13:00
Prediction: Adrian Oetzbach vs Andrey Chepelev
Team pages: Adrian Oetzbach · Andrey Chepelev
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Oetzbach
Andrey Chepelev
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Oetzbach
4-6 (W-L)
Andrey Chepelev
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Oetzbach 1487 · Andrey Chepelev 1536
| Adrian Oetzbach | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1487 vs 1536).
Statistics
| Adrian Oetzbach | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.6 | 10.8-10.3 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 45.8% | 52.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Oetzbach
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Leonardo Iemmi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/10 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/10 | Florian Broska Challenger Maia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/10 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Braga · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/09 | Imanol Lopez Morillo Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Riccardo Trione Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/09 | George Lazarov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Eero Vasa M25 Meerbusch |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/09 | Bruno Fernandez M25 Meerbusch |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Andrey Chepelev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Manuel Mazza M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/10 | Romeo Spinolo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 13/10 | Simone Massucco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/10 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 07/10 | Michiel de Krom M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Max Hans Rehberg M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Oetzbach vs Andrey Chepelev?
Our model gives 61% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.