Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 23/10, 04:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Tristan Schoolkate
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Tristan Schoolkate
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Tristan Schoolkate
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Tristan Schoolkate
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1531 · Tristan Schoolkate 1505
| Keegan Smith | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-13.9 | 12.9-11.5 |
| Aces | 11.5 | 10.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 79.2% |
| Break % | 24.4% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Fajing Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Max Purcell Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/10 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Tristan Schoolkate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Dane Sweeny ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Harold Mayot Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 30/09 | Philip Henning Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Saint-Tropez · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 19/09 | Harold Mayot Challenger Rennes · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Matisse Bobichon Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/09 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/09 | Marek Gengel Challenger Rennes · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 53% to Tristan Schoolkate, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.