Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 23/10, 04:00
Prediction: Coleman Wong vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Coleman Wong · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Coleman Wong
Jay Friend
Estimated games
23.6
Recent form · 10 last
Coleman Wong
6-4 (W-L)
Jay Friend
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coleman Wong 1548 · Jay Friend 1596
| Coleman Wong | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1548 vs 1596).
- Coleman Wong dominates on serve: 15.3 aces and 40.5% break avg.
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 42.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Coleman Wong | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-9.6 | 13.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 15.3 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 78.7% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coleman Wong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Jake Delaney Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Lloyd Harris ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/10 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/10 | Yibing Wu Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/10 | Khumoyun Sultanov Asian Games |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Kasidit Samrej Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/09 | Zaid Mashni Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/09 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | James McCabe Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coleman Wong vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 55% to Coleman Wong, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.