Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 21/10, 11:00
Prediction: Manuel Mazza vs Andrey Chepelev
Team pages: Manuel Mazza · Andrey Chepelev
Prediction summary
Winner
Manuel Mazza
Andrey Chepelev
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Manuel Mazza
6-4 (W-L)
Andrey Chepelev
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Manuel Mazza
1–0
Andrey Chepelev
(1 last)
- 23 Apr2-1 15-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manuel Mazza 1594 · Andrey Chepelev 1534
| Manuel Mazza | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manuel Mazza (rating 1594 vs 1534).
- Head-to-head: Manuel Mazza 1–0 Andrey Chepelev (1).
Statistics
| Manuel Mazza | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.1 | 11.1-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 52.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
H2H · Manuel Mazza 1 – 0 Andrey Chepelev (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manuel Mazza 1–0 Andrey Chepelev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 M25 Santa Margherita | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manuel Mazza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Riccardo Di Vita M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/10 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/10 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/09 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 05/09 | Gabriele Crivellaro M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/09 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Giacomo Crisostomo M15 Bologna · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/08 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Lesa |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Lesa |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Andrey Chepelev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Romeo Spinolo M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 14/10 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 13/10 | Simone Massucco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 09/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/10 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 07/10 | Michiel de Krom M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Max Wiskandt Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/09 | Max Hans Rehberg M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 18/09 | Andrea De Marchi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manuel Mazza vs Andrey Chepelev?
Our model gives 56% to Manuel Mazza, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.