Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 22/10, 04:00
Prediction: Liam Broady vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Liam Broady · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Broady
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Broady
0-10 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Broady 1405 · Akira Santillan 1513
| Liam Broady | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Akira Santillan (rating 1405 vs 1513).
- Akira Santillan dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Akira Santillan is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Liam Broady | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 11% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.9 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-14.1 | 11.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 74.4% |
| Break % | 24.7% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Dominik Palan Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Roanne · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Mouilleron le Captif · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 24/08 | Marco Cecchinato US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Ozan Baris Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 21/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 09/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaigaoge Kang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Broady vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 50% to Liam Broady, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.