Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 22/10, 04:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Fajing Sun
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Fajing Sun
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
7-3 (W-L)
Fajing Sun
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Keegan Smith
1–0
Fajing Sun
(1 last)
- 26 Apr2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1529 · Fajing Sun 1526
| Keegan Smith | Fajing Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Keegan Smith 1–0 Fajing Sun (1).
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Fajing Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-13.4 | 11.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.2% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 23.9% | 31.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
H2H · Keegan Smith 1 – 0 Fajing Sun (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keegan Smith 1–0 Fajing Sun
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/22 Challenger Morelos | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Max Purcell Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/10 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Edward Winter Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Fajing Sun
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Qian Sun Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/10 | Jie Cui Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Bernard Tomic ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/09 | Matthew Dellavedova ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Fajing Sun?
Our model gives 59% to Keegan Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.