Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 21/10, 04:00
Prediction: Jay Friend vs James McCabe
Team pages: Jay Friend · James McCabe
Prediction summary
Winner
Jay Friend
James McCabe
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Jay Friend
7-3 (W-L)
James McCabe
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Friend 1605 · James McCabe 1423
| Jay Friend | James McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 26% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1605 vs 1423).
- Jay Friend dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 48.3% break avg.
- Jay Friend is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jay Friend | James McCabe | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 22% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 0.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-10.7 | 11.6-13.9 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 7 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 77.3% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 24.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Federico Cina Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/08 | Lukas Neumayer US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/07 | Alex Bolt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 21/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Friend vs James McCabe?
Our model gives 68% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.