Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 20/10, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Carboni vs Alexander Chang
Team pages: Lorenzo Carboni · Alexander Chang
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Carboni
Alexander Chang
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Carboni
4-6 (W-L)
Alexander Chang
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Carboni 1484 · Alexander Chang 1506
| Lorenzo Carboni | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Chang is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Carboni | Alexander Chang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.4 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.4-10.7 | 12.6-9.7 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 51.5% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 56.4% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Carboni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Federico Iannaccone M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Sander Jong M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/10 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/09 | Daniel Michalski M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Gabriele Pennaforti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/09 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/09 | Matteo Sciahbasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/08 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Lausanne |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Alexander Chang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Tommaso Bardocci M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/10 | Tommaso Compagnucci M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/10 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-8 | L |
| 07/10 | Rares Teodor Pieleanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 06/10 | Filippo Alfano M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Karan Singh M15 Bali |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 12/09 | Nathan Anthony Barki M15 Bali |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Pablo Perez Ramos M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/09 | Leo Borg M15 Bali |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Reece Falck M15 Bali |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Carboni vs Alexander Chang?
Our model gives 57% to Lorenzo Carboni, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.