Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 20/10, 04:00
Prediction: Yaroslav Demin vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Yaroslav Demin · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Yaroslav Demin
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Yaroslav Demin
7-3 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yaroslav Demin
0–1
Akira Santillan
(1 last)
- 07 Oct0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yaroslav Demin 1532 · Akira Santillan 1481
| Yaroslav Demin | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yaroslav Demin (rating 1532 vs 1481).
- Akira Santillan dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 45.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Yaroslav Demin 0–1 Akira Santillan (1).
Statistics
| Yaroslav Demin | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-9.6 | 11.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 45.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Yaroslav Demin 0 – 1 Akira Santillan (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yaroslav Demin 0–1 Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/26 Challenger Wuning | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yaroslav Demin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/10 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Qian Daohu |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 14/10 | Filip Peliwo M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Beibit Zhukayev Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Hanyi Liu Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Jack Loge M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Niklas Schell M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Yassine Smiej M25 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Akira Santillan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/10 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/09 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/09 | Alex Bolt ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/09 | Kaigaoge Kang ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yaroslav Demin vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 51% to Yaroslav Demin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.