Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 20/10, 04:00
Prediction: Keegan Smith vs Max Purcell
Team pages: Keegan Smith · Max Purcell
Prediction summary
Winner
Keegan Smith
Max Purcell
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Keegan Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Max Purcell
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Keegan Smith 1496 · Max Purcell 1598
| Keegan Smith | Max Purcell | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Max Purcell (rating 1496 vs 1598).
- Max Purcell is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Keegan Smith | Max Purcell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-14.3 | 11.7-8.4 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 80.8% |
| Break % | 26.3% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keegan Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Martin Landaluce Challenger Jinan · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/10 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 06/10 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 02/10 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/09 | Kaylan Bigun Challenger Columbus · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 24/09 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger San Diego · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/09 | Edward Winter Challenger San Diego · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 15/09 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Max Purcell
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Evan Zhu Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/10 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/10 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 04/10 | Julien De Cuyper Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Zhao Zhao M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Jumpei Yamasaki M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Blake Ellis Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keegan Smith vs Max Purcell?
Our model gives 65% to Max Purcell, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.