Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 20/10, 04:00
Prediction: Khumoyun Sultanov vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Khumoyun Sultanov · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Khumoyun Sultanov
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Khumoyun Sultanov
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Khumoyun Sultanov
0–1
Luca Castelnuovo
(1 last)
- 22 Sept0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Khumoyun Sultanov 1521 · Luca Castelnuovo 1528
| Khumoyun Sultanov | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Khumoyun Sultanov 0–1 Luca Castelnuovo (1).
Statistics
| Khumoyun Sultanov | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.1 | 12.7-11.5 |
| Aces | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 80.8% | 81.7% |
| Break % | 32.6% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Khumoyun Sultanov 0 – 1 Luca Castelnuovo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Khumoyun Sultanov 0–1 Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/25 Challenger Jingshan | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Khumoyun Sultanov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Saba Purtseladze Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/10 | Xiaoyin Yang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/10 | Coleman Wong Asian Games |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/10 | Chun Hsin Tseng Asian Games |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Fanming Meng Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/09 | Hunter Heck Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 03/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Joshua Charlton Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Egor Pleshivtsev Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 22/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Khumoyun Sultanov vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 52% to Khumoyun Sultanov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.