Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 20/10, 04:00
Prediction: Kasidit Samrej vs Rio Noguchi
Team pages: Kasidit Samrej · Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Kasidit Samrej
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Kasidit Samrej
4-6 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kasidit Samrej
2–1
Rio Noguchi
(3 last)
- 21 Apr0-2 8-12L
- 30 Nov2-1 16-11W
- 10 Nov2-1 16-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kasidit Samrej 1493 · Rio Noguchi 1473
| Kasidit Samrej | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Kasidit Samrej 2–1 Rio Noguchi (3).
- Note: Kasidit Samrej makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Kasidit Samrej | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-10.3 | 10.2-11.3 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1 |
| 1st serve % | 79% | 68% |
| Break % | 17.5% | 43.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Kasidit Samrej 2 – 1 Rio Noguchi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kasidit Samrej 2–1 Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/25 Challenger Gwangju | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/11/24 Australian Open Asia-Pacific WC | 2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 10/11/24 Challenger Kobe | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kasidit Samrej
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Naoya Honda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/10 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Coleman Wong Asian Games |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/09 | Pradip Khadka Asian Games |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/09 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Alexandre Muller ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 23/09 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Masamichi Imamura ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/09 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rigele Te Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kasidit Samrej vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 57% to Rio Noguchi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.