Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 20/10, 10:00

Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Team pages: Gabriele Maria Noce · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Prediction summary

Winner

48% 52%

Gabriele Maria Noce Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Estimated games

22.6

Recent form · 10 last

Gabriele Maria Noce 3-7 (W-L)

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Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 5-5 (W-L)

WLWWLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Gabriele Maria Noce 1–0 Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (1 last)

06 Oct2-0 13-9W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1481 · Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini 1510

	Gabriele Maria Noce	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Our model	46%	54%
Market	50%	50%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Head-to-head: Gabriele Maria Noce 1–0 Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (1).
Note: Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini makes many double faults (5.7/match).

Statistics

	Gabriele Maria Noce	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
Win %	50%	60%
Win % · Clay	43% (7)	50% (6)
Sets (G-P)	1.1-1.3	1.3-0.9
Games (G-P)	11.6-12.2	11.6-9.4
Aces	1.3	1.1
Double faults	3.3	5.7
1st serve %	59.1%	67.7%
Break %	46%	46.1%

Estimated total games (ours) 22.6

H2H · Gabriele Maria Noce 1 – 0 Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (1)

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
20:21 +13’	1.83	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gabriele Maria Noce 1–0 Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
06/10/24 M25 Santa Margherita	2-0	13-9	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gabriele Maria Noce

WLLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
08/10	Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	0-2	8-12	L
07/10	Giammarco Gandolfi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-1	18-12	W
20/09	Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Genoa · Clay	0-2	7-12	L
16/09	Garrett Johns M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	0-2	6-13	L
15/09	Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-1	15-15	W
11/09	John Sperle M15 Budapest	1-2	12-17	L
10/09	Heorhii Shylov M15 Budapest	2-1	16-12	W
09/09	Pietro Marino M15 Budapest	2-0	12-6	W
04/09	Manuel Mazza M15 Bologna · ~Clay	0-2	9-13	L
03/09	Alessandro Battiston M15 Bologna · ~Clay	2-0	13-10	W

Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

LWLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
13/10	Fausto Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	0-2	6-12	L
12/10	Edouard Villoslada M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
08/10	Giannicola Misasi M15 Burgas	1-2	15-17	L
06/10	Jannik Maute M15 Burgas	2-0	10-1	W
21/09	Lorenzo Carboni M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	0-2	10-13	L
16/09	Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	0-2	7-12	L
15/09	Gabriele Crivellaro M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	13-9	W
14/09	Mattias Pisanu M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay	2-0	12-2	W
10/09	Kirill Kivattsev M15 Budapest	2-1	18-17	W
09/09	Vincent Dullinger M15 Budapest	2-0	13-9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini?

Our model gives 52% to Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.