Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 20/10, 04:00
Prediction: Mert Alkaya vs Andre Ilagan
Team pages: Mert Alkaya · Andre Ilagan
Prediction summary
Winner
Mert Alkaya
Andre Ilagan
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mert Alkaya
4-6 (W-L)
Andre Ilagan
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mert Alkaya 1534 · Andre Ilagan 1444
| Mert Alkaya | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mert Alkaya (rating 1534 vs 1444).
Statistics
| Mert Alkaya | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-10 | 10.7-13.2 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 69% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 27.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mert Alkaya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 09/10 | Yan Cheng Chen M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Ko Suzuki M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/10 | Isaac Becroft M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Davis Cup |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Thiago Agustin Tirante Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/09 | Tiago Torres Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Andre Ilagan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 02/10 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Jingshan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Petr Bar Biryukov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/09 | Bryce Nakashima Challenger Tiburon · Hard |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 26/08 | Hugo Gaston US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Tristan Boyer US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 16/08 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mert Alkaya vs Andre Ilagan?
Our model gives 51% to Mert Alkaya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.