Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 20/10, 04:00
Prediction: Ognjen Milic vs Jay Friend
Team pages: Ognjen Milic · Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Ognjen Milic
Jay Friend
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ognjen Milic
7-3 (W-L)
Jay Friend
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ognjen Milic 1497 · Jay Friend 1578
| Ognjen Milic | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1497 vs 1578).
Statistics
| Ognjen Milic | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.4 | 12.7-10.3 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.7% | 76.4% |
| Break % | 62% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ognjen Milic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Pijus Vaitiekunas Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/09 | Alex Barrena Challenger Tulln · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 02/09 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 31/08 | George Lazarov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/08 | Lucio Ratti Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Vuk Radjenovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 11/08 | Ruslan Tiukaev M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 06/08 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 12/07 | Anton Arzhankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 10/10 | Keisuke Saitoh Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/10 | Yuta Kikuchi Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/09 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/09 | Yanki Erel Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ognjen Milic vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 69% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.