Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 18/10, 09:30
Prediction: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Egor Pleshivtsev · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Egor Pleshivtsev
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Egor Pleshivtsev
4-6 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Egor Pleshivtsev 1533 · Luca Castelnuovo 1491
| Egor Pleshivtsev | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Egor Pleshivtsev (rating 1533 vs 1491).
Statistics
| Egor Pleshivtsev | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (2) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-9.6 | 12.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.9% | 78.9% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Egor Pleshivtsev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Qian Daohu |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/10 | Cruz Hewitt M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/10 | Ye Hongyu M25 Qian Daohu |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/10 | Evan Zhu M25 Qian Daohu |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 08/10 | Yanki Erel M25 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Yua Taka M25 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/09 | Arthur Laborde M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/09 | Davit Zogranian M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/09 | Ignacio Monzon M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/09 | Dmitry Bessonov M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Akira Santillan Challenger Wuning · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 22/09 | Pavel Kotov ATP Chengdu · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Egor Pleshivtsev vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 54% to Luca Castelnuovo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.