Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 18/10, 10:30
Prediction: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
7-3 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1631 · Rafael Jodar 1600
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-11.7 | 12.6-11.4 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 43.3% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.9
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 44% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Alexander Zverev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/10 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 51% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.