Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 17/10, 13:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Daniil Medvedev
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Daniil Medvedev
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Daniil Medvedev
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1558 · Daniil Medvedev 1649
| Rafael Jodar | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1558 vs 1649).
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 2-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11 | 13.5-9.2 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 13.1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 81.8% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 38.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 50% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 50% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Casper Ruud ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model gives 64% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.