Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 17/10, 13:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
6–1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
(7 last)
- 30 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 27 Apr2-1 16-18W
- 30 Sept2-1 18-10W
- 09 Aug0-2 3-12L
- 08 Jun3-0 18-6W
- 17 Oct2-0 14-11W
- 06 Sept3-0 18-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1589 · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1577
| Alexander Zverev | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alexander Zverev dominates on serve: 10.7 aces and 42.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 6–1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (7).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 78% (9) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-11.4 | 13.6-11.2 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78.2% | 73% |
| Break % | 42.8% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.1
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.90
H2H · Alexander Zverev 6 – 1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 6–1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/25 ATP Paris | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/04/25 ATP Madrid | 2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 30/09/23 ATP Beijing | 2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/08/23 ATP Toronto | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/06/21 French Open | 3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 17/10/20 ATP Cologne | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 06/09/20 US Open | 3-0 | 18-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Alex De Minaur ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 11/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Yibing Wu ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/09 | Alex De Minaur Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 11/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/10 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 29/09 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 27/09 | Alexandre Muller ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/09 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Chengdu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 15/07 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
Our model gives 65% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.