Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 16/10, 06:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
9-1 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
4–1
Tommy Paul
(5 last)
- 12 Mar2-0 12-4W
- 14 May0-2 5-12L
- 17 Mar2-1 14-14W
- 29 Sept2-0 12-3W
- 02 Jun3-1 21-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1665 · Tommy Paul 1561
| Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1665 vs 1561).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 51.7% break avg.
- Daniil Medvedev is in better form: 100% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daniil Medvedev 4–1 Tommy Paul (5).
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 100% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-0.2 | 1.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-8.9 | 15.5-13.1 |
| Aces | 13.1 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 82.8% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 37.5% | 51.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 4 – 1 Tommy Paul (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 4–1 Tommy Paul
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/25 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/05/24 ATP Rome | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/03/24 ATP Indian Wells | 2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 29/09/23 ATP Beijing | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/06/21 French Open | 3-1 | 21-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 65% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.