Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 16/10, 06:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1548 · Casper Ruud 1547
| Rafael Jodar | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.3 | 13.4-10.3 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 76% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 35.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Learner Tien ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/09 | Francisco Cerundolo Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 19/09 | Fnu Nidunjianzan Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/09 | Rigele Te Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Joao Fonseca ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 54% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.