Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 15/10, 06:00
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Zverev
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Zverev
10-0 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Zverev
6–4
Alex De Minaur
(10 last)
- 26 Sept1-2 21-20L
- 20 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 05 Jun3-0 19-14W
- 12 Mar2-1 17-12W
- 06 Jan1-2 14-17L
- 12 May2-0 13-9W
- 28 Oct2-1 15-10W
- 03 Jan1-2 14-17L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1581 · Alex De Minaur 1610
| Alexander Zverev | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 6–4 Alex De Minaur (10).
Statistics
| Alexander Zverev | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.9-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-11.6 | 14.1-11 |
| Aces | 11.2 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.5% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 34.5% | 50.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.8
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.90
H2H · Alexander Zverev 6 – 4 Alex De Minaur (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 6–4 Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/26 Laver Cup | 1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09/25 Laver Cup | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06/24 French Open | 3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 12/03/24 ATP Indian Wells | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 06/01/24 United Cup | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/05/22 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/10/21 ATP Vienna | 2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 03/01/20 ATP Cup | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Zverev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alexander Bublik ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 11/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/10 | Yibing Wu ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 03/10 | Juncheng Shang ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/10 | Cameron Norrie ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/09 | Learner Tien Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/09 | Alex De Minaur Laver Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 21-20 | L |
| 20/09 | Dino Prizmic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Matej Dodig Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Karen Khachanov ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/10 | Rei Sakamoto ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 03/10 | Quentin Halys ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 01/10 | Mariano Navone ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/09 | Alexander Zverev Laver Cup · Hard |
2-1 | 20-21 | W |
| 20/09 | Kamil Majchrzak Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Maks Kasnikowski Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 02/09 | Andrea Guerrieri US Open · Hard |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 57% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.