Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 14/10, 06:00
Prediction: Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs
Team pages: Tommy Paul · Zizou Bergs
Prediction summary
Winner
Tommy Paul
Zizou Bergs
Estimated games
25.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tommy Paul
5-5 (W-L)
Zizou Bergs
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tommy Paul
1–0
Zizou Bergs
(1 last)
- 07 Mar2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tommy Paul 1568 · Zizou Bergs 1543
| Tommy Paul | Zizou Bergs | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 51.7% break avg.
- Zizou Bergs dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 46.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Tommy Paul 1–0 Zizou Bergs (1).
- Note: Zizou Bergs makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Tommy Paul | Zizou Bergs | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.3 | 1.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.7-13.4 | 15.9-13.7 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 51.7% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3
Over 22.5: 70% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 30% · 1.83
H2H · Tommy Paul 1 – 0 Zizou Bergs (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tommy Paul 1–0 Zizou Bergs
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/09 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 04/09 | Alexander Bublik US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 27-21 | W |
| 03/09 | Dino Prizmic US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 30/08 | Coleman Wong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 20/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 19/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 18/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Zizou Bergs
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/10 | Ignacio Buse ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/10 | Vit Kopriva ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 19/09 | Jurij Rodionov Davis Cup |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Lukas Neumayer Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/09 | Botic Van De Zandschulp US Open · Hard |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/09 | Jesper De Jong US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-19 | W |
| 02/09 | Carlos Taberner US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 21-13 | W |
| 21/08 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tommy Paul vs Zizou Bergs?
Our model gives 59% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.