Tennis · WTA Wuhan · 17/10, 11:00
Prediction: Sonay Kartal vs Jelena Ostapenko
Team pages: Sonay Kartal · Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Sonay Kartal
Jelena Ostapenko
Estimated games
21.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sonay Kartal
7-3 (W-L)
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sonay Kartal
1–1
Jelena Ostapenko
(2 last)
- 30 Jun2-1 15-13W
- 24 Jun0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sonay Kartal 1588 · Jelena Ostapenko 1553
| Sonay Kartal | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (9.2/match).
Statistics
| Sonay Kartal | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-9 | 10.8-10.6 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 9.2 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 69% |
| Break % | 43.9% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.2
Over 22.5: 42% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 58% · 1.80
H2H · Sonay Kartal 1 – 1 Jelena Ostapenko (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sonay Kartal 1–1 Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/25 Wimbledon Women | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/06/25 WTA Eastbourne | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sonay Kartal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 15/10 | Jasmine Paolini WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/10 | Belinda Bencic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Xinyu Wang WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Marie Bouzkova Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/03 | Madison Keys WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/03 | Emma Navarro WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Diana Shnaider WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Jessica Pegula WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 13/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sonay Kartal vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 56% to Sonay Kartal, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.