Prediction: Diana Shnaider vs Jelena Ostapenko
Team pages: Diana Shnaider · Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Diana Shnaider
Jelena Ostapenko
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Diana Shnaider
8-2 (W-L)
Jelena Ostapenko
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diana Shnaider 1567 · Jelena Ostapenko 1523
| Diana Shnaider | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diana Shnaider (rating 1567 vs 1523).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (9/match).
Statistics
| Diana Shnaider | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-8.4 | 10.3-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.9% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 38% | 54.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 20.5
Over 20.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 47% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diana Shnaider
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Karolina Muchova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/10 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Katie Boulter WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 02/10 | Janice Tjen WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 02/09 | Karolina Pliskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Daria Snigur US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 14/10 | Jessica Pegula WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 13/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diana Shnaider vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 63% to Diana Shnaider, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.