Prediction: Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko
Team pages: Leylah Annie Fernandez · Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Jelena Ostapenko
Estimated games
20.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Leylah Annie Fernandez
8-2 (W-L)
Jelena Ostapenko
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Leylah Annie Fernandez
0–1
Jelena Ostapenko
(1 last)
- 30 Jun0-2 3-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1593 · Jelena Ostapenko 1512
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leylah Annie Fernandez (rating 1593 vs 1512).
- Leylah Annie Fernandez is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Leylah Annie Fernandez 0–1 Jelena Ostapenko (1).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (4.4/match).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (8.8/match).
Statistics
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-9 | 10.2-10.2 |
| Aces | 3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 8.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 55% | 59.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -0.6
Over 21.5: 46% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 54% · 1.80
H2H · Leylah Annie Fernandez 0 – 1 Jelena Ostapenko (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leylah Annie Fernandez 0–1 Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/21 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Han Shi WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/10 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 27/09 | Talia Gibson WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/09 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/09 | Alycia Parks WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/09 | Kyoka Okamura WTA Singapore · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 02/09 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Jessica Pegula WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 13/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Jelena Ostapenko?
Our model gives 57% to Leylah Annie Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.