Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Sonay Kartal
Team pages: Jasmine Paolini · Sonay Kartal
Prediction summary
Winner
Jasmine Paolini
Sonay Kartal
Estimated games
21.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jasmine Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Sonay Kartal
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jasmine Paolini 1538 · Sonay Kartal 1563
| Jasmine Paolini | Sonay Kartal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Sonay Kartal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-10.8 | 12-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 60.3% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 52.6% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.1
Over 22.5: 42% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 58% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Qinwen Zheng Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Veronika Erjavec US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Sonay Kartal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | Belinda Bencic WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/10 | Alina Charaeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/10 | Xinyu Wang WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/10 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/09 | Marie Bouzkova Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 10/03 | Madison Keys WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 07/03 | Emma Navarro WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/03 | Lanlana Tararudee WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/02 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Sonay Kartal?
Our model gives 52% to Jasmine Paolini, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.