Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Ann Li
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Ann Li
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Ann Li
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
3–0
Ann Li
(3 last)
- 21 Mar2-0 13-10W
- 17 Aug2-1 15-15W
- 12 Feb2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1583 · Ann Li 1526
| Aryna Sabalenka | Ann Li | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1583 vs 1526).
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 3–0 Ann Li (3).
- Note: Ann Li makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Ann Li | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-9.3 | 11.2-10 |
| Aces | 6 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 71% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +1.7
Over 19.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 3 – 0 Ann Li (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 3–0 Ann Li
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 WTA Miami | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/08/23 WTA Cincinnati | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 12/02/21 Australian Open Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Renata Zarazua WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/09 | Elena Rybakina US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Jessica Pegula US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/09 | Taylor Townsend US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Kamilla Rakhimova US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/09 | Polina Iatcenko US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Maria Camila Osorio US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Ann Li
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10 | Elina Svitolina WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/10 | Belinda Bencic WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/10 | Ashlyn Krueger WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Linda Noskova US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 03/09 | Donna Vekic US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 31/08 | Antonia Ruzic US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Diane Parry WTA Monterrey · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/08 | Alycia Parks WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Monterrey · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li?
Our model gives 71% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.