Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula
Team pages: Jelena Ostapenko · Jessica Pegula
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelena Ostapenko
Jessica Pegula
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Jessica Pegula
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jelena Ostapenko
1–3
Jessica Pegula
(4 last)
- 09 Mar1-2 11-16L
- 04 Oct2-0 12-6W
- 15 Feb1-2 13-15L
- 03 Mar0-2 7-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelena Ostapenko 1491 · Jessica Pegula 1594
| Jelena Ostapenko | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1491 vs 1594).
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko 1–3 Jessica Pegula (4).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (9/match).
Statistics
| Jelena Ostapenko | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-10 | 12.6-11.1 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 4 |
| Double faults | 9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 56% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.4
Over 20.5: 60% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 40% · 1.90
H2H · Jelena Ostapenko 1 – 3 Jessica Pegula (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jelena Ostapenko 1–3 Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 04/10/23 WTA Beijing | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/02/23 WTA Doha | 1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 03/03/21 WTA Doha | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/10 | Elise Mertens WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Paula Badosa WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Taylah Preston WTA Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Seoul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 15/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Aryna Sabalenka US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Emma Navarro US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/09 | Leylah Annie Fernandez US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Sofia Kenin US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/08 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula?
Our model gives 66% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.