Prediction: Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova
Team pages: Jasmine Paolini · Nikola Bartunkova
Prediction summary
Winner
Jasmine Paolini
Nikola Bartunkova
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jasmine Paolini
7-3 (W-L)
Nikola Bartunkova
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jasmine Paolini 1521 · Nikola Bartunkova 1586
| Jasmine Paolini | Nikola Bartunkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikola Bartunkova (rating 1521 vs 1586).
- Note: Nikola Bartunkova makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Jasmine Paolini | Nikola Bartunkova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.2 | 12.1-8.9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.7% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 57.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +0.7
Over 20.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 45% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jasmine Paolini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Sara Bejlek WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Daria Snigur WTA Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/09 | Elina Svitolina Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Qinwen Zheng Billie Jean King Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Sorana Cirstea US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Lucrezia Stefanini US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Veronika Erjavec US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Nikola Bartunkova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Lilli Tagger WTA Wuhan · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/10 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Beijing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Karolina Muchova WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 06/10 | Sinja Kraus WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 04/10 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Magdalena Frech WTA Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/09 | Mirra Andreeva US Open Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Tatjana Maria US Open Women · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Mayar Sherif US Open Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Monterrey · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jasmine Paolini vs Nikola Bartunkova?
Our model gives 59% to Nikola Bartunkova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.