Tennis · M25 Santa Margherita · 14/10, 10:00
Prediction: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Eero Vasa
Team pages: Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes · Eero Vasa
Prediction summary
Winner
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Eero Vasa
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
6-4 (W-L)
Eero Vasa
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes 1497 · Eero Vasa 1553
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Eero Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eero Vasa (rating 1497 vs 1553).
Statistics
| Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes | Eero Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.2-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.6 | 9.6-7.9 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 50% | 32% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Alexander Chang M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-10 | W |
| 06/10 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/09 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Bari · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/08 | Karl Poling M25 East Lansing |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08 | Max Sheldon M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Tyler Bowers M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Noah Zamora M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Simon Caldwell M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/07 | Edward Winter ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Eero Vasa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Samir Banerjee M25 Falun |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Wojciech Marek M25 Falun |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/09 | Kenzo Koistila Larsson M25 Falun |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/09 | Sizya Ernest Kivanda M25 Falun |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/09 | Valentin Vacherot Davis Cup |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/09 | Adrian Oetzbach M25 Meerbusch |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Romain Faucon M25 Meerbusch |
1-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 04/09 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Meerbusch |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Nico Hipfl M25 Meerbusch |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/09 | Kaspar Mathes M25 Meerbusch |
1-0 | 6-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes vs Eero Vasa?
Our model gives 54% to Eero Vasa, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.