Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 14/10, 06:00
Prediction: Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar
Team pages: Botic Van De Zandschulp · Rafael Jodar
Prediction summary
Winner
Botic Van De Zandschulp
Rafael Jodar
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Botic Van De Zandschulp
4-6 (W-L)
Rafael Jodar
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botic Van De Zandschulp 1569 · Rafael Jodar 1525
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botic Van De Zandschulp (rating 1569 vs 1525).
- Botic Van De Zandschulp dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 44.2% break avg.
- Note: Botic Van De Zandschulp makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-14 | 12-11.3 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botic Van De Zandschulp
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/10 | Alex Michelsen ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/10 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 29/09 | Jie Cui ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 25/09 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/09 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 07/09 | Arthur Gea US Open · Hard |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Alexander Bublik Laver Cup · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cristian Garin Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/09 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 4-18 | L |
| 19/08 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 13/08 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar?
Our model gives 55% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.