Tennis · ATP Shanghai · 14/10, 06:00
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Daniil Medvedev · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniil Medvedev
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniil Medvedev
8-2 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev
5–5
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(10 last)
- 18 Feb0-2 7-12L
- 09 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 28 Oct2-0 13-10W
- 20 May2-0 14-10W
- 16 Nov1-2 16-19L
- 21 Aug1-2 15-16L
- 28 Jan3-1 23-17W
- 08 Jun0-3 14-20L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Medvedev 1651 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1575
| Daniil Medvedev | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniil Medvedev (rating 1651 vs 1575).
- Stefanos Tsitsipas dominates on serve: 8 aces and 42.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Daniil Medvedev | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 90% (10) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-10 | 13.4-11.4 |
| Aces | 13.7 | 8 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 82.1% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 39% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.90
H2H · Daniil Medvedev 5 – 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas (10)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniil Medvedev 5–5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/26 ATP Doha | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/10/24 ATP Shanghai | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/10/23 ATP Vienna | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/05/23 ATP Rome | 2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/11/22 ATP World Tour Finals | 1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 21/08/22 ATP Cincinnati | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 28/01/22 Australian Open | 3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 08/06/21 French Open | 0-3 | 14-20 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Medvedev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 04/10 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/10 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Beijing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/09 | Roman Safiullin ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Coleman Wong ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/09 | Valentin Royer ATP Hangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Frances Tiafoe US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/10 | Luciano Darderi ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/10 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/09 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/09 | Alex Molcan Davis Cup |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 19/09 | Norbert Gombos Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/09 | Ben Shelton US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 65% to Daniil Medvedev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.